There are a number of interesting rumors floating around about the future of Toyota hybrids. As a hybrid owner myself, I have been following the developments very closely. While watching for new hybrids to hit the showroom floor, I have encountered some sinister rumors about impending hybrid shortages.
First, the good rumors- Toyota has several hybrid concepts that they hope to introduce soon. These include the A-BAT, the PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) 1/X and the PHEV Prius. Also rumored to be in the works are plans for a mid-size hybrid-only model with a 2.5 or 3 liter engine. The new vehicle would include third-generation hybrid technology coupled with a larger engine than the Prius to appeal more broadly to the North American market. Rumor has it that this vehicle will come out in 2009. Another interesting rumor floating around is the chance that the new Venza, which is set for a late-2008 release will also be released as a hybrid sometime in 2009.
Now for the bad rumors- there may be a shortage of materials available to manufacture hybrids. As the appeal of hybrids spreads beyond the Prius and even beyond Toyota, precious metals used in the manufacture of batteries may become harder to find. There are indications that Toyota will slow production of the popular Prius this year because of a shortage of batteries. There are even rumors that Toyota is trying to purchase mines to protect its interest in the required materials.
Prototype PHEV Prius’ are already in use by Toyota, while the 1/X and the A-BAT concept vehicles were displayed at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit in January. But what of plans for a new mid-size hybrid or a hybrid Venza?
Currently, Toyota has not publicly admitted to any plans to release a hybrid Venza, but the Venza shares many features with the Highlander. As a crossover vehicle that is marketed as smaller and more fuel-efficient than an SUV, it’s hard to imagine Toyota not releasing a hybrid package. The only question is- will a hybrid model come as soon as 2009? With the Venza being released in 2008 and a 4-cylinder version coming out in 2009, I expect that there will be an additional wait for a hybrid version. If I had to guess, I’d say late 2009 at the earliest, but probably by early 2010. That gives the 6-cylinder and 4-cylinder Venza models a chance to mature and gain acceptance in the US market.
What of a mid-size hybrid sedan? Toyota has announced a concept hybrid sports car called the FT-HS, to be powered by a 400hp hybrid powertrain. Add to that the A-BAT and the 1/X concept, and you have a very strong field of hybrid hopefuls at Toyota. The Hybrid X made its debut at the Geneva Auto Show, but as a four-door, four seater, it does not quite fit the bill as the “mid-size sedan” that is said to more closely resemble the Camry in size. Toyota already makes a hybrid minivan (the Estima- a four-wheel-drive hybrid available in Japan) and there are rumored to be plans for a hybrid Sienna in the US soon.
With all of the innovation on a practical and conceptual level, it would be easy for Toyota to produce a new hybrid. After four years of the Prius virtually unchanged, many buyers are looking for change. The Prius will still have a place on the Toyota lot, but it just may be time for a new American hybrid- perhaps one with a slightly better profit margin. If Toyota is getting ready to release such a vehicle, it would once again shift the hybrid edge firmly back to Toyota. Thus, I get the feeling that something has to be in development. The fact that we haven’t heard about it from Toyota makes me suspect that they are closer to surprising the competition than they’re letting on. So perhaps this rumor is true- or at least close.
As to the chance of a hybrid shortage, there are reports that this may be a problem in the future. Toyota has announced that production of the Prius will decline in 2008 because of production issues. “Our volume on Prius was up 67% (in 2007),” said Toyota GM Bob Carter. “That was a supply-restricted 67% increase. That’s 181,000 cars. We can’t repeat that, no way, even though the demand may be there. We just can’t keep up. So you will see much more moderate growth because of the supply.” Is production being held up by the battery?
It may be more complicated than that. The battery is needed for Camry, Highlander and Lexus hybrids as well as the Prius. It only makes sense that priority would go to these higher-profit vehicles during even a slight battery shortage. As of yet, there are no reports of a shortage of these Toyota hybrids. In fact, no other manufacturer is reporting difficulty keeping up with hybrid demand. Of course, no other hybrid vehicle is approaching 188,000 units in a year.
There seems to be growing concern about the availability and cost of the precious metals that are required for hybrid batteries. According to a report in Asahi Shimbun, there are rumblings on the part of Toyota executives to look into options, including acquiring mines. In March, 2007, senior Toyota advisor Hiroshi Okuda shocked a gathering by inquiring, “Is there a way we could purchase an entire mine?” Mining precious metals would be a drastic step for Toyota, mainly because the process is often viewed as environmentally unfriendly. Toyota president Katsuaki Watanabi has made Toyota’s position clear, “Without co-existence with the environment, Toyota has no future.”
Thus far, engineering teams have focused heavily on limiting the need for valuable resources. For example, the design of the Crown (a high-end sedan available in Japan) features an integrated electronic control unit that is free of wire harnessing, saving copper. Nonetheless, Toyota’s trading house, Toyota Tsusho Corp, has sent fact-finding teams to mines in China, Vietnam, Australia, Canada and Mongolia. The effort has been so intensive that Shigeo Nakamura of the rare metal trading company Advanced Material Japan referred to 2007 as, “the first year of Japan’s natural resource diplomacy.”
When questioned about the biggest threat facing Toyota today, President Watanabe listed his biggest concern as, “The risk of (being unable to secure) materials.” Although Toyota has made no real moves toward acquiring a mine or interests in rare metals, it has laid a strong groundwork to protect its interests in that area. In the meantime, the conversion to hybrid technology is taking place- limited not by demand but by availability of materials.